3 Key Insights to Guide Investors in 2023

by James Liu, CFA / on January 3, 2023

2022 was a challenging year for investors. Markets fell into bear market territory and experienced the worst annual performance since 2008. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq declined 19.4%, 8.8% and 33.1%, respectively, last year. Interest rates swung wildly with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping from 1.51% at the start of the year to a high of 4.24%, before ending at 3.88%. This mirrored inflation as the Consumer Price Index climbed to a 40-year high of 9.1% in September. As a result, the Fed hiked rates seven consecutive times from 0% last March to 4.25% in December. Along the way, a myriad of other events impacted markets from the war in Ukraine to China’s zero-Covid policy, affecting everything from oil prices to the U.S. dollar.

Despite these historic shifts in the economy and markets over the past year, the principles of long-term investing haven’t changed. Staying disciplined, diversified and focused on longer time horizons is more important than ever. For some, it may feel as if markets can’t catch a break, but this is how it felt in March of 2020 before the rapid recovery, in 2008 before a decade-long expansion, and during countless other times across history. Keeping one’s footing as markets rock back and forth is still the best way to achieve financial goals.

Below, we review three insights from the past year that can help investors to maintain a proper long-term perspective in 2023.

1

The historic surge in interest rates impacted both stocks and bonds

Beneath all of the headlines and day-to-day market noise, one key factor drove markets: the surge in interest rates broke their 40-year declining trend. Since the late 1980s, falling rates have helped to boost both stock and bond prices. Over the past year, the jump in inflation pushed nominal rates higher and forced the Fed to hike policy rates. This led to declines across asset classes at the same time.

While this has created challenges for diversification, there is also reason for optimism. Most inflation measures are showing signs of easing, even if they are still elevated. This has allowed interest rates to settle back down in recent months even as the Fed continues to hike rates. While still highly uncertain, most economists expect inflation and rates to stabilize over the next year rather than repeat the patterns of 2022.

2

The Fed raised rates at a historically fast pace

The Fed hiked rates across seven consecutive meetings in 2022 including four 75 basis point hikes in a row. At a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the fed funds rate is now the highest since the housing bubble prior to 2008. In its communication, the Fed has remained committed to raising rates further and keeping them higher for longer in order to fight inflation.

This is where the market arguably had unrealistic expectations last year. The market rally from June to August and again in October and November occurred when investors believed the Fed might begin loosening policy. When these hopes were dashed, markets promptly reversed, causing several back-and-forth swings over the course of the year. These episodes show that good news that is supported by data can be priced in quickly but that investors should not get ahead of themselves.

3

History shows that bear markets eventually recover when it's least expected

While 2022 was challenging, history shows that markets can turn around when investors least expect it. While it can take two years for the average bear market to fully recover, it’s difficult if not impossible to predict when the inflection point will occur.

Many investors have wished that they could go back to mid-2020 or 2008 and jumped back into the market. If research and history tell us anything, it’s that it’s better and easier to simply stay invested than to try to time the market. This could be true again in 2023, just as it was during previous bear market cycles.

The bottom line? While the past year was difficult, those investors who can stay disciplined, diversified and focused on the long run will be on a better path to achieving their financial goals in 2023 and beyond.

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